Betting Advice
Horse racing, the sport of kings apparently! In the real world its not much to do about the racing, more to do with the gambling that goes on it!
Value
The idea of finding value in the prices the bookie offers is that over time you will come out ahead, if you just bet on bets that offer value. No matter how many you lose! For example the chance of guessing the correct number of a standard six sided die is 1 in 6 = 16.6%. 16.6% reflects a bookies price of 5/1, so if u bet £1 on on outcomes, you would bet £6 and u would win, £5 plus your stake, making no gain or loss. Obviously in the real world a bookie would offer less than 5/1 as to always make a profit, what we are hunting is where they are offering greater than 5/1!
Statistics
Ok so how do we find the case when a horse has a better chance of winning than
the bookie has priced? Stats im afraid! There are numerous websites and books
showing data from hundreds of races over the last few years, carefully studying
these figures come out with all sorts of paterns. Data from last few years on
all races shows that favorites win 33% of the time, 2nd fav 20% and 3rd 12%,
with these types of figures we know what prices we should be looking to accept.
Of course nothing is as simple as that, the figures obviously change on all the
different variables of racing, (race length, location, all the horses statistics).
But this is the basis of my value calculator which i hope to develop for my and
your usage (and gain!).